Family Mystery: Update 2 - Searching For My Unknown Great-Grandfather
Continued Progress.
In an earlier post, I introduced a family mystery and a controversial family question: Who was the biological father of my paternal grandmother? In a recent update to that post, I discussed my approach and early progress on developing a research plan for identifying my grandmother Fern's biological father.
,%20Fern%20(1921-2002)%20-%20Enhanced%20Copy.jpg "Fig. 1: Fern Caroline ELDER (1921-2002)") |
| Fig. 1: Fern Caroline ELDER in early 1954 |
The question had to be asked, "Was this effort necessary? Or was the answer already before me in research already done, or in DNA test results and associated matches already available?" The answer was, "Possibly." So, I paused work on proceeding through the process of building a traditional research report (à la Family Locket Genealogists) in favour of exploring:
- the process of ruling out two possible candidates identified in prior research, and
- analysis and interpretation of my father's and my own existing DNA results and matches.
What We Know and Ruling Out Possible Candidates.
I had learned from researching DNA tools (see Note 1 below) that other descendants of my biological great-grandfather could theoretically share about 12.5% DNA with me (assuming the same generation level as me) and the more I read, the more I became certain that I should be seeing relatively close matches to unknown branches of the family in my AncestryDNA results. Except that I wasn't...so why not?
Also, who had motive, access, and opportunity to have fathered my grandmother? These key questions must be considered when reviewing the traditional reasearch and determining likely candidates for Fern's biological father - or for ruling them out.
Candidate #1 - My Step-Great-Grandfather
Through prior traditional research, I had identified two individuals who, on the surface, met all three criteria of motive, access, and opportunity:
- the man who my great-grandmother married after she left the family farm near Brandon, and
- a young man who, according to census records, resided on the family farm at the relevant time.
On closer inspection of the timeline for my step-great-grandfather, it seems highly unlikely that he was my grandmother's biological father:
- he lived in distant Winnipeg, Manitoba at the relevant time,
- he was the main provider for his widowed mother and his siblings at the relevant time so his focus was on his family situation in Winnipeg,
- in the Fall of 1920 it seems he did not yet know my great-grandmother, and
- I have no DNA matches to my step-great-grandfather's own side of the family.
It is also fairly certain through traditional research and establishing timelines that my great-grandmother did not have the opportunity to meet the man she married until she left the farm and moved to Winnipeg, a whole five years after Fern was born. The pair simply lived in different worlds and travelled in different circles, and I am confident they did not know each other until significantly after the relevant time.
Candidate #2 - The Hired Farmhand
Reviewing the details of the young man who worked as a hired hand on the family farm at the relevant time, his timeline and family details ticked many boxes from the stories handed down through the family:
- he was maybe Irish,
- he had an association with the army camp situated across the river from the family farm, and
- his family was affluent enough to pay a sum of money to Fern's biological grandparents to raise her as their own daughter.
Taking a page from genetic genealogy practice, I made a "floating branch" in my Ancestry tree that is linked to my DNA test kit, adding this man and his family members, descendants, and going back to his grandparents in England.
In researching their story, I discovered that they were indeed affluent, that there indeed was an association with military service, and that potentially either this young man or his younger brother could be potential candidates for Fern's biological father. But after initial excitement when AncestryDNA appeared to be suggesting a regional match (which I realized was simply because some branches of my known family also came from that region of England), after a time it was clear there were no current matches linked to this man's family.
This is Getting Complicated.
After reviewing the DNA results and matches for my father's and my test kits on three different DNA platforms, it became clear that there were zero unidentified matches falling with the range of about 6-12% shared DNA (6% for half-relatives, 12% for full relatives). I had done the genealogy pedigree work, so I was confident that all matches within the expected shared DNA range were accounted for. The absence of any unidentified branch of the family was baffling: Everything I had read or viewed regarding DNA tools told me that I should be seeing some DNA matches to my unknown great-grandfather's family, given the fairly close relationship.
The fact that I wasn't seeing these matches was obvious and very confusing. How to intrepret what seemed more and more to be an unusual situation, and where to go from here, was beginning to feel beyond my beginner's ability with investigative genealogy and DNA tools.
Time to Call in the Professionals.
Given the lack of DNA matches from an unknown family branch within the expected range, it seemed that I had three options:
- Continue with traditional research to try to identify new possible candidates.
- Continue to monitor DNA matches for individuals belonging to an unidentified branch of the family.
- Hire professional help to assist with traditional research, or investigative DNA research, or both.
Notes
- My research on DNA tools acquainted me with the fact that, in my situation, autosomal DNA matches were my best chance of finding a connection to the descendants of Fern's biological father. The probability that some descendants of his should show as my cousins ranged from (for AncestryDNA matches) about 11% for 6th cousins to 100% for first cousins. Given the size of AncestryDNA's database, I became more confident that I should be seeing someone related to me through his family line.
- I had kept this floating branch in my tree for about a week. My goal was to test current matches. AncestryDNA's ThruLines returned no positive matches to this man's family, either through his descendants or through descendants of his more distant relatives. Recognizing the possibility that there simply might not be any tested individuals yet in AncestryDNA's database, I tentatively ruled out this individual, with a note to return to him in the event that no other leads turned up.
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